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Dimensão Saúde vs Jacyobá — Alagoano - 2 2024

Dimensão Saúde
Dimensão Saúde
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jacyobá
Jacyobá
Kaylan 53'
9/29/2024Alagoano - 2Alagoano - 2 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Manoel Ferreira de Amorim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Dimensão Saúde77%
×Draw16%
Jacyobá6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dimensão Saúde
2.15
Jacyobá
0.43

Dimensão Saúde creates 400% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

Dimensão Saúde
1.30
Jacyobá
0.17

allows per match

Dimensão Saúde
0.70
Jacyobá
3.00

finishing

Dimensão Saúde+0.00on par
Jacyobá+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimensão Saúde ↓

Jacyobá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dimensão Saúde or draw
94%
Dimensão Saúde or Jacyobá
84%
Draw or Jacyobá
23%

Winning margin

Dimensão Saúde wins by 2+
52%
Jacyobá wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Dimensão Saúde 1+ goals
88%
Dimensão Saúde 2+ goals
63%
Dimensão Saúde 3+ goals
36%
Jacyobá 1+ goals
35%
Jacyobá 2+ goals
7%
Jacyobá 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Dimensão Saúde (draw refunded)
93%
Jacyobá (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimensão Saúde at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Jacyobá away — creates 0.17, concedes 3.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimensão Saúde attack 1.30 + Jacyobá defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Jacyobá attack 0.17 + Dimensão Saúde defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Dimensão Saúde scores more
77%
level
16%
Jacyobá scores more
6%

Dimensão Saúde at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Dimensão Saúde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
Kaylan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dimensão Saúde vs Jacyobá

Dimensão Saúde beat Jacyobá 1-0 in Alagoano - 2 on September 29, 2024.

Goals: Kaylan (53').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Manoel Ferreira de Amorim in São Miguel dos Campos, Alagoas.