Dimensão Saúde 0–1 Igaci: Result & Stats

Dimensão Saúde

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Igaci

Unknown 66'

10/13/2024

Alagoano - 2 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Municipal Manoel Ferreira de Amorim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dimensão Saúde31%

×Draw35%

Igaci34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dimensão SaúdeExpected goals in this matchIgaci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

0.85

Dimensão Saúde

0.80

Igaci

0.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.30

creates per match

1.00

0.70

allows per match

0.29

creates per match

Dimensão Saúde

1.30

Igaci

1.00

allows per match

Dimensão Saúde

0.70

Igaci

0.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dimensão Saúde+0.00on par

Igaci+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimensão Saúde ↓

Igaci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–116%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

49%51%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Dimensão Saúde or draw

66%

Dimensão Saúde or Igaci

65%

Draw or Igaci

69%

Winning margin

Dimensão Saúde wins by 2+

10%

Igaci wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dimensão Saúde 1+ goals

55%

Dimensão Saúde 2+ goals

19%

Dimensão Saúde 3+ goals

5%

Igaci 1+ goals

57%

Igaci 2+ goals

21%

Igaci 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dimensão Saúde (draw refunded)

48%

Igaci (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimensão Saúde at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Igaci away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimensão Saúde attack 1.30 + Igaci defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.80

Igaci attack 1.00 + Dimensão Saúde defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Dimensão Saúde scores more

31%

level

35%

Igaci scores more

34%

Igaci at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Igaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff