Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dimba Patriots vs Nairobi United — Super League 2018

Dimba Patriots
Dimba Patriots
FT
2 – 2
Nairobi United
Nairobi United
2/10/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19The Wolves Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dimba Patriots35%
×Draw27%
Nairobi United38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dimba Patriots
1.19
Nairobi United
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 37 away

creates per match

Dimba Patriots
1.69
Nairobi United
1.30

allows per match

Dimba Patriots
1.19
Nairobi United
0.70

finishing

Dimba Patriots+0.00on par
Nairobi United+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimba Patriots ↓

Nairobi United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dimba Patriots or draw
62%
Dimba Patriots or Nairobi United
73%
Draw or Nairobi United
65%

Winning margin

Dimba Patriots wins by 2+
15%
Nairobi United wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dimba Patriots 1+ goals
70%
Dimba Patriots 2+ goals
33%
Dimba Patriots 3+ goals
12%
Nairobi United 1+ goals
71%
Nairobi United 2+ goals
36%
Nairobi United 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)
48%
Nairobi United (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimba Patriots at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Nairobi United away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimba Patriots attack 1.69 + Nairobi United defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.19

Nairobi United attack 1.30 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dimba Patriots scores more
35%
level
27%
Nairobi United scores more
38%

Nairobi United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nairobi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dimba Patriots vs Nairobi United

Dimba Patriots and Nairobi United drew 2-2 in Super League on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at The Wolves Den in Olooloitikosh.