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Dimba Patriots vs Mombasa Elite — Super League 2018

Dimba Patriots
Dimba Patriots
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mombasa Elite
Mombasa Elite
9/30/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3The Wolves Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dimba Patriots53%
×Draw24%
Mombasa Elite22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dimba Patriots
1.66
Mombasa Elite
0.98

Dimba Patriots creates 69% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 91 away

creates per match

Dimba Patriots
1.69
Mombasa Elite
0.78

allows per match

Dimba Patriots
1.19
Mombasa Elite
1.62

finishing

Dimba Patriots+0.00on par
Mombasa Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimba Patriots ↓

Mombasa Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dimba Patriots or draw
78%
Dimba Patriots or Mombasa Elite
76%
Draw or Mombasa Elite
47%

Winning margin

Dimba Patriots wins by 2+
29%
Mombasa Elite wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dimba Patriots 1+ goals
81%
Dimba Patriots 2+ goals
49%
Dimba Patriots 3+ goals
23%
Mombasa Elite 1+ goals
62%
Mombasa Elite 2+ goals
26%
Mombasa Elite 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)
70%
Mombasa Elite (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimba Patriots at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Mombasa Elite away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.62 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimba Patriots attack 1.69 + Mombasa Elite defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.66

Mombasa Elite attack 0.78 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dimba Patriots scores more
53%
level
24%
Mombasa Elite scores more
22%

Dimba Patriots at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dimba Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Dimba Patriots 2–1 Mombasa Elite

Dimba Patriots beat Mombasa Elite 2-1 in Super League on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at The Wolves Den in Olooloitikosh.