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Dimba Patriots vs MOFA — Super League 2018

Dimba Patriots
Dimba Patriots
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
MOFA
MOFA
12/21/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14The Wolves Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dimba Patriots43%
×Draw27%
MOFA30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dimba Patriots
1.34
MOFA
1.08

Dimba Patriots creates 24% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 37 away

creates per match

Dimba Patriots
1.69
MOFA
0.97

allows per match

Dimba Patriots
1.19
MOFA
1.00

finishing

Dimba Patriots+0.00on par
MOFA+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimba Patriots ↓

MOFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dimba Patriots or draw
70%
Dimba Patriots or MOFA
73%
Draw or MOFA
57%

Winning margin

Dimba Patriots wins by 2+
20%
MOFA wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dimba Patriots 1+ goals
74%
Dimba Patriots 2+ goals
39%
Dimba Patriots 3+ goals
15%
MOFA 1+ goals
66%
MOFA 2+ goals
29%
MOFA 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)
59%
MOFA (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimba Patriots at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

MOFA away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimba Patriots attack 1.69 + MOFA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.34

MOFA attack 0.97 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dimba Patriots scores more
43%
level
27%
MOFA scores more
30%

Dimba Patriots at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dimba Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dimba Patriots vs MOFA

Dimba Patriots and MOFA drew 0-0 in Super League on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at The Wolves Den in Olooloitikosh.