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Dimba Patriots vs Mathare United — Super League 2018

Dimba Patriots
Dimba Patriots
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Mathare United
Mathare United
1/6/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15The Wolves Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dimba Patriots41%
×Draw26%
Mathare United33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dimba Patriots
1.45
Mathare United
1.28

Dimba Patriots creates 13% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dimba Patriots
1.69
Mathare United
1.37

allows per match

Dimba Patriots
1.19
Mathare United
1.21

finishing

Dimba Patriots+0.00on par
Mathare United+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimba Patriots ↓

Mathare United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dimba Patriots or draw
67%
Dimba Patriots or Mathare United
74%
Draw or Mathare United
59%

Winning margin

Dimba Patriots wins by 2+
20%
Mathare United wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dimba Patriots 1+ goals
77%
Dimba Patriots 2+ goals
42%
Dimba Patriots 3+ goals
18%
Mathare United 1+ goals
72%
Mathare United 2+ goals
37%
Mathare United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)
55%
Mathare United (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimba Patriots at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Mathare United away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimba Patriots attack 1.69 + Mathare United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.45

Mathare United attack 1.37 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dimba Patriots scores more
41%
level
26%
Mathare United scores more
33%

Dimba Patriots at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean " Dimba Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Dimba Patriots 1–3 Mathare United

Mathare United beat Dimba Patriots 3-1 in Super League on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at The Wolves Den in Olooloitikosh.