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Dimba Patriots vs Mara Sugar — Super League 2018

Dimba Patriots
Dimba Patriots
CANC
13:00
Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
3/2/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21The Wolves Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dimba Patriots41%
×Draw26%
Mara Sugar33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dimba Patriots
1.42
Mara Sugar
1.25

Dimba Patriots creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 52 away

creates per match

Dimba Patriots
1.69
Mara Sugar
1.31

allows per match

Dimba Patriots
1.19
Mara Sugar
1.15

finishing

Dimba Patriots+0.00on par
Mara Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimba Patriots ↓

Mara Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dimba Patriots or draw
67%
Dimba Patriots or Mara Sugar
74%
Draw or Mara Sugar
59%

Winning margin

Dimba Patriots wins by 2+
19%
Mara Sugar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dimba Patriots 1+ goals
76%
Dimba Patriots 2+ goals
41%
Dimba Patriots 3+ goals
17%
Mara Sugar 1+ goals
71%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
36%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)
55%
Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimba Patriots at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Mara Sugar away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimba Patriots attack 1.69 + Mara Sugar defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mara Sugar attack 1.31 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dimba Patriots scores more
41%
level
26%
Mara Sugar scores more
33%

Dimba Patriots at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dimba Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dimba Patriots vs Mara Sugar — Match Preview

Dimba Patriots face Mara Sugar on March 2, 2024 in this Super League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dimba Patriots host Mara Sugar at The Wolves Den.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.