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Dimba Patriots vs Luanda Villa — Super League 2018

Dimba Patriots
Dimba Patriots
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Luanda Villa
Luanda Villa
10/14/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5The Wolves Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dimba Patriots51%
×Draw26%
Luanda Villa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dimba Patriots
1.50
Luanda Villa
0.92

Dimba Patriots creates 63% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 56 away

creates per match

Dimba Patriots
1.69
Luanda Villa
0.64

allows per match

Dimba Patriots
1.19
Luanda Villa
1.30

finishing

Dimba Patriots+0.00on par
Luanda Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimba Patriots ↓

Luanda Villa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dimba Patriots or draw
77%
Dimba Patriots or Luanda Villa
74%
Draw or Luanda Villa
49%

Winning margin

Dimba Patriots wins by 2+
26%
Luanda Villa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dimba Patriots 1+ goals
78%
Dimba Patriots 2+ goals
44%
Dimba Patriots 3+ goals
19%
Luanda Villa 1+ goals
60%
Luanda Villa 2+ goals
23%
Luanda Villa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)
69%
Luanda Villa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimba Patriots at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Luanda Villa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimba Patriots attack 1.69 + Luanda Villa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

Luanda Villa attack 0.64 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dimba Patriots scores more
51%
level
26%
Luanda Villa scores more
23%

Dimba Patriots at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dimba Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Dimba Patriots 0–0 Luanda Villa

Dimba Patriots and Luanda Villa drew 0-0 in Super League on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at The Wolves Den in Olooloitikosh.