Dimba Patriots 1–1 Kisumu All Stars: Result & Stats

Dimba Patriots

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kisumu All Stars

3/16/2024

Super League · Round 23The Wolves Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dimba Patriots50%

×Draw25%

Kisumu All Stars25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dimba PatriotsExpected goals in this matchKisumu All Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.04

Dimba Patriots

1.60

Kisumu All Stars

1.04

Dimba Patriots creates 54% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 107 away

1.69

creates per match

0.90

1.19

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Dimba Patriots

1.69

Kisumu All Stars

0.90

allows per match

Dimba Patriots

1.19

Kisumu All Stars

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dimba Patriots+0.00on par

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimba Patriots ↓

Kisumu All Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dimba Patriots or draw

75%

Dimba Patriots or Kisumu All Stars

75%

Draw or Kisumu All Stars

50%

Winning margin

Dimba Patriots wins by 2+

26%

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dimba Patriots 1+ goals

80%

Dimba Patriots 2+ goals

47%

Dimba Patriots 3+ goals

22%

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals

65%

Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals

28%

Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)

67%

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimba Patriots at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Kisumu All Stars away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.51 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimba Patriots attack 1.69 + Kisumu All Stars defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.60

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.90 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dimba Patriots scores more

50%

level

25%

Kisumu All Stars scores more

25%

Dimba Patriots at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dimba Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff