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Dimba Patriots vs Kibera Black Stars — Super League 2018

Dimba Patriots
Dimba Patriots
FT
1 – 1
Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
11/5/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 8The Wolves Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dimba Patriots47%
×Draw26%
Kibera Black Stars27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dimba Patriots
1.50
Kibera Black Stars
1.07

Dimba Patriots creates 40% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 110 away

creates per match

Dimba Patriots
1.69
Kibera Black Stars
0.95

allows per match

Dimba Patriots
1.19
Kibera Black Stars
1.31

finishing

Dimba Patriots+0.00on par
Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimba Patriots ↓

Kibera Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dimba Patriots or draw
73%
Dimba Patriots or Kibera Black Stars
74%
Draw or Kibera Black Stars
53%

Winning margin

Dimba Patriots wins by 2+
24%
Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dimba Patriots 1+ goals
78%
Dimba Patriots 2+ goals
44%
Dimba Patriots 3+ goals
19%
Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
66%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
29%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)
64%
Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimba Patriots at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Kibera Black Stars away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimba Patriots attack 1.69 + Kibera Black Stars defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kibera Black Stars attack 0.95 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dimba Patriots scores more
47%
level
26%
Kibera Black Stars scores more
27%

Dimba Patriots at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dimba Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dimba Patriots vs Kibera Black Stars

Dimba Patriots and Kibera Black Stars drew 1-1 in Super League on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at The Wolves Den in Olooloitikosh.