Dimba Patriots 4–3 Coastal Heroes: Result & Stats

Dimba Patriots

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Coastal Heroes

4/28/2024

Super League · Round 29The Wolves Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dimba Patriots58%

×Draw22%

Coastal Heroes20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dimba PatriotsExpected goals in this matchCoastal Heroes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.00

Dimba Patriots

1.90

Coastal Heroes

1.00

Dimba Patriots creates 90% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 72 away

1.69

creates per match

0.81

1.19

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Dimba Patriots

1.69

Coastal Heroes

0.81

allows per match

Dimba Patriots

1.19

Coastal Heroes

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dimba Patriots+0.00on par

Coastal Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimba Patriots ↓

Coastal Heroes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dimba Patriots or draw

80%

Dimba Patriots or Coastal Heroes

78%

Draw or Coastal Heroes

42%

Winning margin

Dimba Patriots wins by 2+

34%

Coastal Heroes wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dimba Patriots 1+ goals

85%

Dimba Patriots 2+ goals

56%

Dimba Patriots 3+ goals

29%

Coastal Heroes 1+ goals

63%

Coastal Heroes 2+ goals

26%

Coastal Heroes 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)

75%

Coastal Heroes (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimba Patriots at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Coastal Heroes away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.11 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimba Patriots attack 1.69 + Coastal Heroes defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.90

Coastal Heroes attack 0.81 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dimba Patriots scores more

58%

level

22%

Coastal Heroes scores more

20%

Dimba Patriots at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dimba Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff