Dimba Patriots 2–1 Assad: Result & Stats

Dimba Patriots

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Assad

12/10/2024

Super League · Round 12The Wolves Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dimba Patriots61%

×Draw21%

Assad18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dimba PatriotsExpected goals in this matchAssad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.96

Dimba Patriots

1.99

Assad

0.96

Dimba Patriots creates 107% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 73 away

1.69

creates per match

0.74

1.19

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Dimba Patriots

1.69

Assad

0.74

allows per match

Dimba Patriots

1.19

Assad

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dimba Patriots+0.00on par

Assad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimba Patriots ↓

Assad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dimba Patriots or draw

82%

Dimba Patriots or Assad

79%

Draw or Assad

39%

Winning margin

Dimba Patriots wins by 2+

37%

Assad wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dimba Patriots 1+ goals

86%

Dimba Patriots 2+ goals

59%

Dimba Patriots 3+ goals

32%

Assad 1+ goals

62%

Assad 2+ goals

25%

Assad 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)

78%

Assad (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimba Patriots at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Assad away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.29 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimba Patriots attack 1.69 + Assad defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.99

Assad attack 0.74 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dimba Patriots scores more

61%

level

21%

Assad scores more

18%

Dimba Patriots at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dimba Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff