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Dimba Patriots vs APS Bomet — Super League 2018

Dimba Patriots
Dimba Patriots
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
APS Bomet
APS Bomet
1/12/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15The Wolves Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dimba Patriots40%
×Draw28%
APS Bomet31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dimba Patriots
1.23
APS Bomet
1.05

Dimba Patriots creates 17% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 39 away

creates per match

Dimba Patriots
1.69
APS Bomet
0.92

allows per match

Dimba Patriots
1.19
APS Bomet
0.77

finishing

Dimba Patriots+0.00on par
APS Bomet+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimba Patriots ↓

APS Bomet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dimba Patriots or draw
69%
Dimba Patriots or APS Bomet
72%
Draw or APS Bomet
60%

Winning margin

Dimba Patriots wins by 2+
18%
APS Bomet wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dimba Patriots 1+ goals
71%
Dimba Patriots 2+ goals
35%
Dimba Patriots 3+ goals
13%
APS Bomet 1+ goals
65%
APS Bomet 2+ goals
28%
APS Bomet 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)
56%
APS Bomet (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimba Patriots at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

APS Bomet away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.77 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimba Patriots attack 1.69 + APS Bomet defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.23

APS Bomet attack 0.92 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dimba Patriots scores more
40%
level
28%
APS Bomet scores more
31%

Dimba Patriots at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dimba Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dimba Patriots vs APS Bomet

APS Bomet beat Dimba Patriots 2-1 in Super League on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at The Wolves Den in Olooloitikosh.