Dilijan 1–2 Torpedo Yerevan: Result & Stats

Dilijan

FT

1 – 2

Torpedo Yerevan

9/24/2019

First League · Round 8UWC Dilijan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dilijan45%

×Draw19%

Torpedo Yerevan36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DilijanExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Yerevan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.59

2.30

Dilijan

2.59

Torpedo Yerevan

2.30

Dilijan creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.69

creates per match

1.29

3.31

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Dilijan

1.69

Torpedo Yerevan

1.29

allows per match

Dilijan

3.31

Torpedo Yerevan

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dilijan+0.00on par

Torpedo Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dilijan ↓

Torpedo Yerevan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Dilijan or draw

64%

Dilijan or Torpedo Yerevan

81%

Draw or Torpedo Yerevan

55%

Winning margin

Dilijan wins by 2+

28%

Torpedo Yerevan wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Dilijan 1+ goals

92%

Dilijan 2+ goals

73%

Dilijan 3+ goals

47%

Torpedo Yerevan 1+ goals

90%

Torpedo Yerevan 2+ goals

67%

Torpedo Yerevan 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Dilijan (draw refunded)

56%

Torpedo Yerevan (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dilijan at home — creates 1.69, concedes 3.31 · 13 matches

Torpedo Yerevan away — creates 1.29, concedes 3.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dilijan attack 1.69 + Torpedo Yerevan defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.59

Torpedo Yerevan attack 1.29 + Dilijan defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dilijan scores more

45%

level

19%

Torpedo Yerevan scores more

36%

Dilijan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dilijan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff