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Dilijan vs Sevan — First League 2019

Dilijan
Dilijan
FT
0 – 2
Sevan
Sevan
5/30/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Fut Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dilijan20%
×Draw18%
Sevan62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dilijan
1.50
Sevan
2.67

Sevan creates 78% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 28 away

creates per match

Dilijan
1.69
Sevan
2.04

allows per match

Dilijan
3.31
Sevan
1.32

finishing

Dilijan+0.00on par
Sevan+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dilijan ↓

Sevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Dilijan or draw
38%
Dilijan or Sevan
82%
Draw or Sevan
80%

Winning margin

Dilijan wins by 2+
9%
Sevan wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Dilijan 1+ goals
78%
Dilijan 2+ goals
44%
Dilijan 3+ goals
19%
Sevan 1+ goals
93%
Sevan 2+ goals
74%
Sevan 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Dilijan (draw refunded)
25%
Sevan (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dilijan at home — creates 1.69, concedes 3.31 · 13 matches

Sevan away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dilijan attack 1.69 + Sevan defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sevan attack 2.04 + Dilijan defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dilijan scores more
20%
level
18%
Sevan scores more
62%

Sevan at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sevan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Dilijan 0–2 Sevan

Sevan beat Dilijan 2-0 in First League on May 30, 2020.

The match was played at Fut Akademia in Ejmiatsin.