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Dilijan vs Masis — First League 2019

Dilijan
Dilijan
FT
1 – 1
Masis
Masis
12/8/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dilijan38%
×Draw20%
Masis42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dilijan
2.13
Masis
2.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dilijan
1.69
Masis
1.14

allows per match

Dilijan
3.31
Masis
2.57

finishing

Dilijan+0.00on par
Masis+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dilijan ↓

Masis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Dilijan or draw
58%
Dilijan or Masis
80%
Draw or Masis
62%

Winning margin

Dilijan wins by 2+
21%
Masis wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Dilijan 1+ goals
88%
Dilijan 2+ goals
63%
Dilijan 3+ goals
35%
Masis 1+ goals
89%
Masis 2+ goals
65%
Masis 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Dilijan (draw refunded)
48%
Masis (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dilijan at home — creates 1.69, concedes 3.31 · 13 matches

Masis away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dilijan attack 1.69 + Masis defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.13

Masis attack 1.14 + Dilijan defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dilijan scores more
38%
level
20%
Masis scores more
42%

Masis at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Masis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dilijan 1 – 1 Masis

Dilijan and Masis drew 1-1 in First League on December 8, 2019.

The match was played at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur in Dzoraghbyur.