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Dilijan vs Ararat-Armenia II — First League 2019

Dilijan
Dilijan
CANC
14:00
Ararat-Armenia II
Ararat-Armenia II
7/3/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 30UWC Dilijan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dilijan29%
×Draw20%
Ararat-Armenia II52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dilijan
1.77
Ararat-Armenia II
2.40

Ararat-Armenia II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 99 away

creates per match

Dilijan
1.69
Ararat-Armenia II
1.48

allows per match

Dilijan
3.31
Ararat-Armenia II
1.86

finishing

Dilijan+0.00on par
Ararat-Armenia II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dilijan ↓

Ararat-Armenia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Dilijan or draw
48%
Dilijan or Ararat-Armenia II
80%
Draw or Ararat-Armenia II
71%

Winning margin

Dilijan wins by 2+
14%
Ararat-Armenia II wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Dilijan 1+ goals
83%
Dilijan 2+ goals
53%
Dilijan 3+ goals
26%
Ararat-Armenia II 1+ goals
91%
Ararat-Armenia II 2+ goals
69%
Ararat-Armenia II 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Dilijan (draw refunded)
36%
Ararat-Armenia II (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dilijan at home — creates 1.69, concedes 3.31 · 13 matches

Ararat-Armenia II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.86 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dilijan attack 1.69 + Ararat-Armenia II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ararat-Armenia II attack 1.48 + Dilijan defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dilijan scores more
29%
level
20%
Ararat-Armenia II scores more
52%

Ararat-Armenia II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dilijan face Ararat-Armenia II (First League)

First League returns with Dilijan hosting Ararat-Armenia II. Match starts July 3, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dilijan host Ararat-Armenia II at UWC Dilijan.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.