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Dilijan vs Aragats — First League 2019

Dilijan
Dilijan
FT
1 – 5
Aragats
Aragats
8/13/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 2UWC Dilijan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dilijan34%
×Draw19%
Aragats48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dilijan
2.27
Aragats
2.69

Aragats creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dilijan
1.69
Aragats
2.07

allows per match

Dilijan
3.31
Aragats
2.86

finishing

Dilijan+0.00on par
Aragats+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dilijan ↓

Aragats →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–26%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Dilijan or draw
52%
Dilijan or Aragats
81%
Draw or Aragats
66%

Winning margin

Dilijan wins by 2+
18%
Aragats wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Dilijan 1+ goals
90%
Dilijan 2+ goals
66%
Dilijan 3+ goals
39%
Aragats 1+ goals
93%
Aragats 2+ goals
74%
Aragats 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Dilijan (draw refunded)
41%
Aragats (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dilijan at home — creates 1.69, concedes 3.31 · 13 matches

Aragats away — creates 2.07, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dilijan attack 1.69 + Aragats defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.27

Aragats attack 2.07 + Dilijan defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dilijan scores more
34%
level
19%
Aragats scores more
48%

Aragats at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Aragats will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Dilijan 1–5 Aragats

Aragats beat Dilijan 5-1 in First League on August 13, 2019.

The match was played at UWC Dilijan in Dilijan.