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Dilijan vs Ani Yerevan — First League 2019

Dilijan
Dilijan
FT
4 – 2
Ani Yerevan
Ani Yerevan
11/28/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 16UWC Dilijan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dilijan50%
×Draw18%
Ani Yerevan32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dilijan
2.81
Ani Yerevan
2.26

Dilijan creates 24% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dilijan
1.69
Ani Yerevan
1.21

allows per match

Dilijan
3.31
Ani Yerevan
3.93

finishing

Dilijan+0.00on par
Ani Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dilijan ↓

Ani Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Dilijan or draw
68%
Dilijan or Ani Yerevan
82%
Draw or Ani Yerevan
50%

Winning margin

Dilijan wins by 2+
31%
Ani Yerevan wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dilijan 1+ goals
94%
Dilijan 2+ goals
76%
Dilijan 3+ goals
52%
Ani Yerevan 1+ goals
89%
Ani Yerevan 2+ goals
66%
Ani Yerevan 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Dilijan (draw refunded)
61%
Ani Yerevan (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dilijan at home — creates 1.69, concedes 3.31 · 13 matches

Ani Yerevan away — creates 1.21, concedes 3.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dilijan attack 1.69 + Ani Yerevan defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 2.81

Ani Yerevan attack 1.21 + Dilijan defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dilijan scores more
50%
level
18%
Ani Yerevan scores more
32%

Dilijan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dilijan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Dilijan 4–2 Ani Yerevan

Dilijan beat Ani Yerevan 4-2 in First League on November 28, 2019.

The match was played at UWC Dilijan in Dilijan.