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Dikaki vs Stade Mandji — Championnat D1 2022

Dikaki
Dikaki
FT
0 – 4
Stade Mandji
Stade Mandji
5/7/2023Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 16Stade Mbombet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Dikaki22%
×Draw26%
Stade Mandji52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dikaki
0.88
Stade Mandji
1.50

Stade Mandji creates 70% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 31 away

creates per match

Dikaki
0.91
Stade Mandji
0.94

allows per match

Dikaki
2.06
Stade Mandji
0.84

finishing

Dikaki+0.00on par
Stade Mandji+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dikaki ↓

Stade Mandji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dikaki or draw
48%
Dikaki or Stade Mandji
74%
Draw or Stade Mandji
78%

Winning margin

Dikaki wins by 2+
7%
Stade Mandji wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Dikaki 1+ goals
59%
Dikaki 2+ goals
22%
Dikaki 3+ goals
6%
Stade Mandji 1+ goals
78%
Stade Mandji 2+ goals
44%
Stade Mandji 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dikaki (draw refunded)
30%
Stade Mandji (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dikaki at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.06 · 33 matches

Stade Mandji away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.84 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dikaki attack 0.91 + Stade Mandji defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.88

Stade Mandji attack 0.94 + Dikaki defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dikaki scores more
22%
level
26%
Stade Mandji scores more
52%

Stade Mandji at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stade Mandji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dikaki vs Stade Mandji

Stade Mandji beat Dikaki 4-0 in Championnat D1 on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Mbombet in Mouila.