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Dikaki vs Mounana — Championnat D1 2022

Dikaki
Dikaki
FT
0 – 1
Mounana
Mounana
11/9/2022Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 3Stade Mbombet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dikaki25%
×Draw25%
Mounana50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dikaki
1.01
Mounana
1.56

Mounana creates 54% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dikaki
0.91
Mounana
1.05

allows per match

Dikaki
2.06
Mounana
1.11

finishing

Dikaki+0.00on par
Mounana+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dikaki ↓

Mounana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dikaki or draw
50%
Dikaki or Mounana
75%
Draw or Mounana
75%

Winning margin

Dikaki wins by 2+
9%
Mounana wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Dikaki 1+ goals
64%
Dikaki 2+ goals
27%
Dikaki 3+ goals
8%
Mounana 1+ goals
79%
Mounana 2+ goals
46%
Mounana 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dikaki (draw refunded)
33%
Mounana (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dikaki at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.06 · 33 matches

Mounana away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dikaki attack 0.91 + Mounana defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Mounana attack 1.05 + Dikaki defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dikaki scores more
25%
level
25%
Mounana scores more
50%

Mounana at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mounana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dikaki vs Mounana

Mounana beat Dikaki 1-0 in Championnat D1 on November 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Mbombet in Mouila.