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Dikaki vs Cercle Mbéri — Championnat D1 2022

Dikaki
Dikaki
CANC
14:30
Cercle Mbéri
Cercle Mbéri
5/13/2023Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 17Stade Mbombet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Dikaki18%
×Draw24%
Cercle Mbéri58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dikaki
0.80
Cercle Mbéri
1.68

Cercle Mbéri creates 110% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Dikaki
0.91
Cercle Mbéri
1.30

allows per match

Dikaki
2.06
Cercle Mbéri
0.70

finishing

Dikaki+0.00on par
Cercle Mbéri+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dikaki ↓

Cercle Mbéri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dikaki or draw
42%
Dikaki or Cercle Mbéri
76%
Draw or Cercle Mbéri
82%

Winning margin

Dikaki wins by 2+
5%
Cercle Mbéri wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Dikaki 1+ goals
55%
Dikaki 2+ goals
19%
Dikaki 3+ goals
5%
Cercle Mbéri 1+ goals
81%
Cercle Mbéri 2+ goals
50%
Cercle Mbéri 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Dikaki (draw refunded)
23%
Cercle Mbéri (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dikaki at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.06 · 33 matches

Cercle Mbéri away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dikaki attack 0.91 + Cercle Mbéri defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.80

Cercle Mbéri attack 1.30 + Dikaki defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dikaki scores more
18%
level
24%
Cercle Mbéri scores more
58%

Cercle Mbéri at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cercle Mbéri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dikaki host Cercle Mbéri

May 13, 2023: Dikaki take on Cercle Mbéri in Championnat D1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dikaki host Cercle Mbéri at Stade Mbombet.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.