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Dikaki vs Bouenguidi — Championnat D1 2022

Dikaki
Dikaki
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Bouenguidi
Bouenguidi
5/17/2025Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 24Stade Mbombet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dikaki29%
×Draw27%
Bouenguidi44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dikaki
1.09
Bouenguidi
1.41

Bouenguidi creates 29% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 32 away

creates per match

Dikaki
0.91
Bouenguidi
0.75

allows per match

Dikaki
2.06
Bouenguidi
1.28

finishing

Dikaki+0.00on par
Bouenguidi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dikaki ↓

Bouenguidi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dikaki or draw
56%
Dikaki or Bouenguidi
73%
Draw or Bouenguidi
71%

Winning margin

Dikaki wins by 2+
11%
Bouenguidi wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Dikaki 1+ goals
66%
Dikaki 2+ goals
30%
Dikaki 3+ goals
10%
Bouenguidi 1+ goals
76%
Bouenguidi 2+ goals
41%
Bouenguidi 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dikaki (draw refunded)
40%
Bouenguidi (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dikaki at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.06 · 33 matches

Bouenguidi away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dikaki attack 0.91 + Bouenguidi defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.09

Bouenguidi attack 0.75 + Dikaki defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dikaki scores more
29%
level
27%
Bouenguidi scores more
44%

Bouenguidi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bouenguidi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat D1: Dikaki 1–4 Bouenguidi

Bouenguidi beat Dikaki 4-1 in Championnat D1 on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Mbombet in Mouila.