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Dijon W vs Montpellier W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Dijon W
Dijon W
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Montpellier W
Montpellier W
12/7/2024Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 10Stade Gaston-Gérard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Dijon W31%
×Draw24%
Montpellier W45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dijon W
1.39
Montpellier W
1.71

Montpellier W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 86 away

creates per match

Dijon W
1.13
Montpellier W
1.67

allows per match

Dijon W
1.75
Montpellier W
1.65

finishing

Dijon W+0.00on par
Montpellier W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dijon W ↓

Montpellier W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dijon W or draw
55%
Dijon W or Montpellier W
76%
Draw or Montpellier W
69%

Winning margin

Dijon W wins by 2+
14%
Montpellier W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Dijon W 1+ goals
75%
Dijon W 2+ goals
40%
Dijon W 3+ goals
16%
Montpellier W 1+ goals
82%
Montpellier W 2+ goals
51%
Montpellier W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Dijon W (draw refunded)
41%
Montpellier W (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dijon W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.75 · 84 matches

Montpellier W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.65 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dijon W attack 1.13 + Montpellier W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.39

Montpellier W attack 1.67 + Dijon W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dijon W scores more
31%
level
24%
Montpellier W scores more
45%

Montpellier W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Montpellier W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dijon W vs Montpellier W

Dijon W beat Montpellier W 4-2 in Feminine Division 1 on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Dijon.