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Dijon vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Dijon
Dijon
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Niort
Niort
M. Le Bihan 84'
D. Congré 69'
Y. Merdji 28'
B. Reynet 23' (OG)
12/11/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 18Stade Gaston-Gérard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Dijon46%
×Draw27%
Niort27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dijon
1.38
Niort
0.98

Dijon creates 41% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 91 away

creates per match

Dijon
1.21
Niort
0.84

allows per match

Dijon
1.13
Niort
1.55

finishing

Dijon+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dijon ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dijon or draw
73%
Dijon or Niort
73%
Draw or Niort
54%

Winning margin

Dijon wins by 2+
22%
Niort wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dijon 1+ goals
75%
Dijon 2+ goals
40%
Dijon 3+ goals
16%
Niort 1+ goals
62%
Niort 2+ goals
26%
Niort 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dijon (draw refunded)
63%
Niort (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dijon at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

Niort away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.55 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dijon attack 1.21 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Niort attack 0.84 + Dijon defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dijon scores more
46%
level
27%
Niort scores more
27%

Dijon at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
V. JacobDijonDijon · M
7.6

Match Events

23'
B. ReynetOwn goal
28'
Y. Merdji
33'
Senou Coulibaly
49'
Aurelien Scheidler
55'
M. Ahlinvi← W. Younoussa
55'
R. Philippoteaux← Y. Benzia
58'
Christopher Rocchia
65'
M. Le Bihan← A. Dobre
67'
Darline Zidane Yongwa Ngameni
69'
D. Congré↳ V. Jacob
71'
L. Vallier← D. Yongwa
71'
Joseph Mendes← I. Sissoko
80'
Dylan Louiserre
80'
S. Benchamma← Y. Cassubie
83'
Samy Benchama
84'
M. Le Bihan
86'
Lucas Deaux
89'
S. Renel← B. Boutobba

Possession

64%Dijon

Shots

13Dijon

Pass accuracy

54%Dijon

Statistics

DijonNiort
Overview
64%Possession36%
13Total Shots8
11Corners2
21Fouls22
Shots
13Total Shots8
7On Target2
4Off Target4
2Blocked2
7Inside Box4
6Outside Box4
Passing
64%Possession36%
432Total Passes257
334Accurate Passes169
77%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
21Fouls22
4Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Ligue 2: Dijon 2–2 Niort

Dijon and Niort drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on December 11, 2021.

Goals: B. Reynet (23' o.g.), Y. Merdji (28'), D. Congré (69'), M. Le Bihan (84').

Dijon controlled possession (64%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Dijon.