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Dijon vs Nancy — Ligue 2 2018

Dijon
Dijon
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Nancy
Nancy
5/7/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 37Stade Gaston-Gérard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Dijon43%
×Draw27%
Nancy30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dijon
1.34
Nancy
1.07

Dijon creates 25% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 90 away

creates per match

Dijon
1.21
Nancy
1.02

allows per match

Dijon
1.13
Nancy
1.47

finishing

Dijon+0.00on par
Nancy+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dijon ↓

Nancy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dijon or draw
70%
Dijon or Nancy
73%
Draw or Nancy
57%

Winning margin

Dijon wins by 2+
20%
Nancy wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dijon 1+ goals
74%
Dijon 2+ goals
39%
Dijon 3+ goals
15%
Nancy 1+ goals
66%
Nancy 2+ goals
29%
Nancy 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dijon (draw refunded)
59%
Nancy (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dijon at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

Nancy away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dijon attack 1.21 + Nancy defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

Nancy attack 1.02 + Dijon defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dijon scores more
43%
level
27%
Nancy scores more
30%

Dijon at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dijon 2 – 3 Nancy

Nancy beat Dijon 3-2 in Ligue 2 on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Dijon.