Dijon 0–0 Le Puy Foot: Result & Stats

Dijon

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Le Puy Foot

7/9/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dijon51%

×Draw25%

Le Puy Foot24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DijonExpected goals in this matchLe Puy Foot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.00

Dijon

1.58

Le Puy Foot

1.00

Dijon creates 58% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

0.75

1.25

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Dijon

1.67

Le Puy Foot

0.75

allows per match

Dijon

1.25

Le Puy Foot

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dijon+0.00on par

Le Puy Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dijon ↓

Le Puy Foot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dijon or draw

76%

Dijon or Le Puy Foot

75%

Draw or Le Puy Foot

49%

Winning margin

Dijon wins by 2+

26%

Le Puy Foot wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dijon 1+ goals

79%

Dijon 2+ goals

47%

Dijon 3+ goals

21%

Le Puy Foot 1+ goals

63%

Le Puy Foot 2+ goals

26%

Le Puy Foot 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dijon (draw refunded)

68%

Le Puy Foot (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dijon at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Le Puy Foot away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dijon attack 1.67 + Le Puy Foot defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Le Puy Foot attack 0.75 + Dijon defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dijon scores more

51%

level

25%

Le Puy Foot scores more

24%

Dijon at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Dijon

Le

Manager: Baptiste Ridira

Manager: Stéphane Dief