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Dijon vs Bastia — Ligue 2 2018

Dijon
Dijon
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bastia
Bastia
9/11/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 7Stade Gaston-Gérard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Dijon41%
×Draw28%
Bastia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dijon
1.27
Bastia
1.08

Dijon creates 18% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 91 away

creates per match

Dijon
1.21
Bastia
1.03

allows per match

Dijon
1.13
Bastia
1.33

finishing

Dijon+0.00on par
Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dijon ↓

Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dijon or draw
69%
Dijon or Bastia
72%
Draw or Bastia
59%

Winning margin

Dijon wins by 2+
18%
Bastia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dijon 1+ goals
72%
Dijon 2+ goals
36%
Dijon 3+ goals
14%
Bastia 1+ goals
66%
Bastia 2+ goals
29%
Bastia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dijon (draw refunded)
56%
Bastia (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dijon at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dijon attack 1.21 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bastia attack 1.03 + Dijon defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dijon scores more
41%
level
28%
Bastia scores more
31%

Dijon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dijon vs Bastia

Dijon beat Bastia 2-1 in Ligue 2 on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Dijon.