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Dijon vs Amiens — Ligue 1 2010

Dijon
Dijon
CANC
00:00
Amiens
Amiens
3/21/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 30Stade Gaston-Gérard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Dijon45%
×Draw27%
Amiens28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dijon
1.36
Amiens
1.01

Dijon creates 35% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 48 away

creates per match

Dijon
1.19
Amiens
0.65

allows per match

Dijon
1.38
Amiens
1.54

finishing

Dijon+0.00on par
Amiens+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dijon ↓

Amiens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dijon or draw
72%
Dijon or Amiens
73%
Draw or Amiens
55%

Winning margin

Dijon wins by 2+
21%
Amiens wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dijon 1+ goals
74%
Dijon 2+ goals
39%
Dijon 3+ goals
16%
Amiens 1+ goals
64%
Amiens 2+ goals
27%
Amiens 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dijon (draw refunded)
62%
Amiens (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dijon at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.38 · 107 matches

Amiens away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.54 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dijon attack 1.19 + Amiens defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Amiens attack 0.65 + Dijon defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dijon scores more
45%
level
27%
Amiens scores more
28%

Dijon at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dijon face Amiens (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 returns with Dijon hosting Amiens. Match starts March 21, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dijon host Amiens at Stade Gaston-Gérard.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.