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Difai Ağsu vs Karvan — Birinci Dasta 2019

Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
FT
3 – 5
HT: 1 – 4
Karvan
Karvan
4/3/2025Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 20Şamaxı OİK stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Difai Ağsu28%
×Draw23%
Karvan49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Difai Ağsu
1.37
Karvan
1.86

Karvan creates 36% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 26 away

creates per match

Difai Ağsu
1.24
Karvan
1.88

allows per match

Difai Ağsu
1.85
Karvan
1.50

finishing

Difai Ağsu+0.00on par
Karvan+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difai Ağsu ↓

Karvan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Difai Ağsu or draw
51%
Difai Ağsu or Karvan
77%
Draw or Karvan
72%

Winning margin

Difai Ağsu wins by 2+
12%
Karvan wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Difai Ağsu 1+ goals
75%
Difai Ağsu 2+ goals
40%
Difai Ağsu 3+ goals
16%
Karvan 1+ goals
84%
Karvan 2+ goals
55%
Karvan 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Difai Ağsu (draw refunded)
37%
Karvan (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difai Ağsu at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.85 · 41 matches

Karvan away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difai Ağsu attack 1.24 + Karvan defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.37

Karvan attack 1.88 + Difai Ağsu defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Difai Ağsu scores more
28%
level
23%
Karvan scores more
49%

Karvan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Karvan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Difai Ağsu vs Karvan

Karvan beat Difai Ağsu 5-3 in Birinci Dasta on April 3, 2025.

The match was played at Şamaxı OİK stadionu in Shamakhi.