Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Difaa EL Jadida vs UTS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
K. Baba 83' (pen)
2/27/2025Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 23Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Difaa EL Jadida40%
×Draw29%
UTS Rabat31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Difaa EL Jadida
1.19
UTS Rabat
1.02

Difaa EL Jadida creates 17% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 61 away

creates per match

Difaa EL Jadida
1.01
UTS Rabat
1.07

allows per match

Difaa EL Jadida
0.96
UTS Rabat
1.36

finishing

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par
UTS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difaa EL Jadida ↓

UTS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Difaa EL Jadida or draw
69%
Difaa EL Jadida or UTS Rabat
71%
Draw or UTS Rabat
60%

Winning margin

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
17%
UTS Rabat wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
70%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
33%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
12%
UTS Rabat 1+ goals
64%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
27%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
56%
UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difaa EL Jadida at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.96 · 106 matches

UTS Rabat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.01 + UTS Rabat defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.19

UTS Rabat attack 1.07 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Difaa EL Jadida scores more
40%
level
29%
UTS Rabat scores more
31%

Difaa EL Jadida at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Difaa EL Jadida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'
Y. Dahmani← Y. Zraa
64'
H. Essadak← M. Chemlal
66'
H. Faris← M. Chichane
76'
S. Abaaziz← O. Jerrari
76'
A. Kanou← M. Sahd
81'
Redouan Ait Lamkadem
83'
K. BabaPenalty
84'
A. Boudlal← M. Essahel
84'
Z. Housni← P. Gadio
89'
O. Benchaoui← Y. Arbidi
89'
Y. Fatine← K. Baba
90+6'
Omar Arjoune
90+3'
T. El Khalej← Y. Akharraz

Statistics

DifaaUTS
Discipline
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Difaa EL Jadida vs UTS Rabat

Difaa EL Jadida beat UTS Rabat 1-0 in Botola Pro on February 27, 2025.

Goals: K. Baba (83' pen).

The match was played at Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi in Mazghan.