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Difaa EL Jadida vs Rapide Oued ZEM — Botola Pro 2025

Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
FT
2 – 0
Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEM
4/6/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 24Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi (El Jadida (Mazghan))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Difaa EL Jadida42%
×Draw31%
Rapide Oued ZEM27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Difaa EL Jadida
1.11
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.84

Difaa EL Jadida creates 32% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 60 away

creates per match

Difaa EL Jadida
1.00
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.72

allows per match

Difaa EL Jadida
0.96
Rapide Oued ZEM
1.23

finishing

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par
Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difaa EL Jadida ↓

Rapide Oued ZEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Difaa EL Jadida or draw
73%
Difaa EL Jadida or Rapide Oued ZEM
69%
Draw or Rapide Oued ZEM
58%

Winning margin

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
17%
Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
67%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
30%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
10%
Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
57%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
21%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
60%
Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difaa EL Jadida at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.96 · 105 matches

Rapide Oued ZEM away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.23 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.00 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 0.72 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Difaa EL Jadida scores more
42%
level
31%
Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
27%

Difaa EL Jadida at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Difaa EL Jadida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Difaa EL Jadida vs Rapide Oued ZEM

Difaa EL Jadida beat Rapide Oued ZEM 2-0 in Botola Pro on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi (El Jadida (Mazghan)).