Difaa EL Jadida 0–1 Ittifaq Marrakech

Difaa EL Jadida

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ittifaq Marrakech

4/21/2024

Botola 2 · Round 22Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Difaa EL Jadida53%

×Draw29%

Ittifaq Marrakech18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Difaa EL JadidaExpected goals in this matchIttifaq Marrakech

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.62

Difaa EL Jadida

1.30

Ittifaq Marrakech

0.62

Difaa EL Jadida creates 110% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

1.40

creates per match

0.57

0.67

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Difaa EL Jadida

1.40

Ittifaq Marrakech

0.57

allows per match

Difaa EL Jadida

0.67

Ittifaq Marrakech

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Ittifaq Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difaa EL Jadida ↓

Ittifaq Marrakech →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Difaa EL Jadida or draw

82%

Difaa EL Jadida or Ittifaq Marrakech

71%

Draw or Ittifaq Marrakech

47%

Winning margin

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+

25%

Ittifaq Marrakech wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals

73%

Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals

37%

Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals

14%

Ittifaq Marrakech 1+ goals

46%

Ittifaq Marrakech 2+ goals

13%

Ittifaq Marrakech 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)

75%

Ittifaq Marrakech (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difaa EL Jadida at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Ittifaq Marrakech away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.40 + Ittifaq Marrakech defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ittifaq Marrakech attack 0.57 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Difaa EL Jadida scores more

53%

level

29%

Ittifaq Marrakech scores more

18%

Difaa EL Jadida at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Difaa EL Jadida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff