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Difaa EL Jadida vs Hassania Agadir — Botola Pro 2025

Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
FT
1 – 1
Hassania Agadir
Hassania Agadir
E. M. Chichane 45'
Y. Rami 33'
5/18/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 29Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi (El Jadida (Mazghan))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Difaa EL Jadida40%
×Draw31%
Hassania Agadir29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Difaa EL Jadida
1.09
Hassania Agadir
0.88

Difaa EL Jadida creates 24% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 119 away

creates per match

Difaa EL Jadida
1.01
Hassania Agadir
0.80

allows per match

Difaa EL Jadida
0.96
Hassania Agadir
1.18

finishing

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par
Hassania Agadir+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difaa EL Jadida ↓

Hassania Agadir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Difaa EL Jadida or draw
71%
Difaa EL Jadida or Hassania Agadir
69%
Draw or Hassania Agadir
60%

Winning margin

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
16%
Hassania Agadir wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
66%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
30%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
10%
Hassania Agadir 1+ goals
59%
Hassania Agadir 2+ goals
22%
Hassania Agadir 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
58%
Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difaa EL Jadida at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.96 · 106 matches

Hassania Agadir away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.01 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Hassania Agadir attack 0.80 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Difaa EL Jadida scores more
40%
level
31%
Hassania Agadir scores more
29%

Difaa EL Jadida at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Difaa EL Jadida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
Y. Rami
45'
E. M. Chichane

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Difaa EL Jadida 1–1 Hassania Agadir

Difaa EL Jadida and Hassania Agadir drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on May 18, 2019.

Goals: Y. Rami (33'), E. M. Chichane (45').

The match was played at Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi (El Jadida (Mazghan)).