Difaa EL Jadida vs FAR Rabat — Botola Pro 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 106+ matches
Difaa EL Jadida30%
FAR Rabat40%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FAR Rabat creates 21% more chances
Season form · 106 home / 118 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Difaa EL Jadida ↓
Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Difaa EL Jadida at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.96 · 106 matches
FAR Rabat away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.92 · 118 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.01 + FAR Rabat defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.97
FAR Rabat attack 1.39 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.17
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
FAR Rabat at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Wydad AC
Raja Casablanca
Hassania Agadir
Olympique Safi
Ittihad Tanger
Youssoufia BerrechidDifaa EL Jadida
Renaissance Berkane
FUS Rabat
Rapide Oued ZEM
Mouloudia Oujda
Moghreb TetouanFAR Rabat
Olympique Khouribga
Kawkab Marrakech
Chabab RIF HoceimaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Difaa EL Jadida host FAR Rabat on Wednesday, 2 October 2024 at 15:00. The match is part of the Botola Pro 2025/2026 season.
Difaa EL Jadida 1 – 0 FAR Rabat
Difaa EL Jadida beat FAR Rabat 1-0 in Botola Pro on October 2, 2024.
Goals: K. Baba (30').
The match was played at Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi in Mazghan.