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Difaa EL Jadida vs El Massira — Botola 2 2025

Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
El Massira
El Massira
12/3/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 13Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Difaa EL Jadida51%
×Draw28%
El Massira20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Difaa EL Jadida
1.34
El Massira
0.73

Difaa EL Jadida creates 84% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 90 away

creates per match

Difaa EL Jadida
1.40
El Massira
0.79

allows per match

Difaa EL Jadida
0.67
El Massira
1.28

finishing

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par
El Massira+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difaa EL Jadida ↓

El Massira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Difaa EL Jadida or draw
80%
Difaa EL Jadida or El Massira
72%
Draw or El Massira
49%

Winning margin

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
25%
El Massira wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
74%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
39%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
15%
El Massira 1+ goals
52%
El Massira 2+ goals
17%
El Massira 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
72%
El Massira (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difaa EL Jadida at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

El Massira away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.28 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.40 + El Massira defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34

El Massira attack 0.79 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Difaa EL Jadida scores more
51%
level
28%
El Massira scores more
20%

Difaa EL Jadida at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Difaa EL Jadida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Difaa EL Jadida 0–3 El Massira

El Massira beat Difaa EL Jadida 3-0 in Botola 2 on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi in Mazghan.