Dietkirchen 2–2 Rot-Weiß Walldorf: Result & Stats

Dietkirchen

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Rot-Weiß Walldorf

3/11/2023

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 26Sportplatz Dietkirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Dietkirchen39%

×Draw22%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DietkirchenExpected goals in this matchRot-Weiß Walldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.85

Dietkirchen

1.86

Rot-Weiß Walldorf

1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 93 away

1.81

creates per match

1.84

1.86

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Dietkirchen

1.81

Rot-Weiß Walldorf

1.84

allows per match

Dietkirchen

1.86

Rot-Weiß Walldorf

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dietkirchen+0.00on par

Rot-Weiß Walldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dietkirchen ↓

Rot-Weiß Walldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Dietkirchen or draw

61%

Dietkirchen or Rot-Weiß Walldorf

78%

Draw or Rot-Weiß Walldorf

61%

Winning margin

Dietkirchen wins by 2+

21%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Dietkirchen 1+ goals

84%

Dietkirchen 2+ goals

55%

Dietkirchen 3+ goals

28%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf 1+ goals

84%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf 2+ goals

55%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Dietkirchen (draw refunded)

50%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dietkirchen at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.86 · 57 matches

Rot-Weiß Walldorf away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dietkirchen attack 1.81 + Rot-Weiß Walldorf defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.86

Rot-Weiß Walldorf attack 1.84 + Dietkirchen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dietkirchen scores more

39%

level

22%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf scores more

39%

Dietkirchen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dietkirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff