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Dietkirchen vs Hessen Dreieich — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Dietkirchen
Dietkirchen
CANC
13:00
Hessen Dreieich
Hessen Dreieich
4/10/2021Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 27Rasenplatz Limburg-Dietkirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dietkirchen33%
×Draw22%
Hessen Dreieich46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dietkirchen
1.67
Hessen Dreieich
2.00

Hessen Dreieich creates 20% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 21 away

creates per match

Dietkirchen
1.81
Hessen Dreieich
2.14

allows per match

Dietkirchen
1.86
Hessen Dreieich
1.52

finishing

Dietkirchen+0.00on par
Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dietkirchen ↓

Hessen Dreieich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Dietkirchen or draw
54%
Dietkirchen or Hessen Dreieich
78%
Draw or Hessen Dreieich
67%

Winning margin

Dietkirchen wins by 2+
16%
Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Dietkirchen 1+ goals
81%
Dietkirchen 2+ goals
50%
Dietkirchen 3+ goals
23%
Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals
86%
Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals
59%
Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Dietkirchen (draw refunded)
42%
Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dietkirchen at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.86 · 57 matches

Hessen Dreieich away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dietkirchen attack 1.81 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.67

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.14 + Dietkirchen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dietkirchen scores more
33%
level
22%
Hessen Dreieich scores more
46%

Hessen Dreieich at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hessen Dreieich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dietkirchen host Hessen Dreieich

April 10, 2021: Dietkirchen take on Hessen Dreieich in Oberliga - Hessen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dietkirchen host Hessen Dreieich at Rasenplatz Limburg-Dietkirchen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.