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Dietkirchen vs FC 1906 Erlensee — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Dietkirchen
Dietkirchen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FC 1906 Erlensee
FC 1906 Erlensee
4/23/2022Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - Promotion Round - 6Rasenplatz Limburg-Dietkirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Dietkirchen47%
×Draw22%
FC 1906 Erlensee31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dietkirchen
1.90
FC 1906 Erlensee
1.51

Dietkirchen creates 26% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Dietkirchen
1.81
FC 1906 Erlensee
1.16

allows per match

Dietkirchen
1.86
FC 1906 Erlensee
1.98

finishing

Dietkirchen+0.00on par
FC 1906 Erlensee+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dietkirchen ↓

FC 1906 Erlensee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Dietkirchen or draw
69%
Dietkirchen or FC 1906 Erlensee
78%
Draw or FC 1906 Erlensee
53%

Winning margin

Dietkirchen wins by 2+
26%
FC 1906 Erlensee wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dietkirchen 1+ goals
85%
Dietkirchen 2+ goals
56%
Dietkirchen 3+ goals
29%
FC 1906 Erlensee 1+ goals
78%
FC 1906 Erlensee 2+ goals
44%
FC 1906 Erlensee 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dietkirchen (draw refunded)
60%
FC 1906 Erlensee (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dietkirchen at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.86 · 57 matches

FC 1906 Erlensee away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.98 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dietkirchen attack 1.81 + FC 1906 Erlensee defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.90

FC 1906 Erlensee attack 1.16 + Dietkirchen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dietkirchen scores more
47%
level
22%
FC 1906 Erlensee scores more
31%

Dietkirchen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dietkirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Dietkirchen 0–2 FC 1906 Erlensee

FC 1906 Erlensee beat Dietkirchen 2-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Rasenplatz Limburg-Dietkirchen in Limburg.