Dietkirchen 3–1 1960 Hanau: Result & Stats

Dietkirchen

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

1960 Hanau

2/24/2024

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 21Sportplatz Dietkirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Dietkirchen42%

×Draw21%

1960 Hanau37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DietkirchenExpected goals in this match1960 Hanau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.87

Dietkirchen

2.02

1960 Hanau

1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 52 away

1.81

creates per match

1.87

1.86

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Dietkirchen

1.81

1960 Hanau

1.87

allows per match

Dietkirchen

1.86

1960 Hanau

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dietkirchen+0.00on par

1960 Hanau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dietkirchen ↓

1960 Hanau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Dietkirchen or draw

63%

Dietkirchen or 1960 Hanau

79%

Draw or 1960 Hanau

58%

Winning margin

Dietkirchen wins by 2+

23%

1960 Hanau wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Dietkirchen 1+ goals

87%

Dietkirchen 2+ goals

60%

Dietkirchen 3+ goals

33%

1960 Hanau 1+ goals

85%

1960 Hanau 2+ goals

56%

1960 Hanau 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Dietkirchen (draw refunded)

54%

1960 Hanau (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dietkirchen at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.86 · 57 matches

1960 Hanau away — creates 1.87, concedes 2.23 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dietkirchen attack 1.81 + 1960 Hanau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.02

1960 Hanau attack 1.87 + Dietkirchen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dietkirchen scores more

42%

level

21%

1960 Hanau scores more

37%

Dietkirchen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dietkirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff