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Dietikon vs Concordia Basel — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Dietikon
Dietikon
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Concordia Basel
Concordia Basel
11/4/20231. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13NEO!-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dietikon38%
×Draw23%
Concordia Basel38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dietikon
1.60
Concordia Basel
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Dietikon
1.43
Concordia Basel
1.93

allows per match

Dietikon
1.30
Concordia Basel
1.77

finishing

Dietikon+0.00on par
Concordia Basel+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dietikon ↓

Concordia Basel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dietikon or draw
62%
Dietikon or Concordia Basel
77%
Draw or Concordia Basel
62%

Winning margin

Dietikon wins by 2+
19%
Concordia Basel wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dietikon 1+ goals
80%
Dietikon 2+ goals
47%
Dietikon 3+ goals
22%
Concordia Basel 1+ goals
80%
Concordia Basel 2+ goals
48%
Concordia Basel 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Dietikon (draw refunded)
50%
Concordia Basel (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dietikon at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Concordia Basel away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dietikon attack 1.43 + Concordia Basel defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.60

Concordia Basel attack 1.93 + Dietikon defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dietikon scores more
38%
level
23%
Concordia Basel scores more
38%

Dietikon at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dietikon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dietikon vs Concordia Basel

Dietikon beat Concordia Basel 2-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at NEO!-Arena in Fahrweid.