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Dieppe vs Laval — Coupe de France 2018

Dieppe
Dieppe
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Laval
Lavaladvanced
1/7/2024Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Stade Jean Dasnias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dieppe21%
×Draw22%
Laval57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dieppe
1.09
Laval
1.94

Laval creates 78% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

creates per match

Dieppe
1.25
Laval
1.88

allows per match

Dieppe
2.00
Laval
0.94

finishing

Dieppe+0.00on par
Laval+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dieppe ↓

Laval →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dieppe or draw
43%
Dieppe or Laval
78%
Draw or Laval
79%

Winning margin

Dieppe wins by 2+
8%
Laval wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Dieppe 1+ goals
66%
Dieppe 2+ goals
30%
Dieppe 3+ goals
10%
Laval 1+ goals
86%
Laval 2+ goals
58%
Laval 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Dieppe (draw refunded)
27%
Laval (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dieppe at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Laval away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dieppe attack 1.25 + Laval defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.09

Laval attack 1.88 + Dieppe defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dieppe scores more
21%
level
22%
Laval scores more
57%

Laval at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Laval will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Dieppe 0–4 Laval

Laval beat Dieppe 4-0 in Coupe de France on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Jean Dasnias in Saint-Aubin-sur-Scie.