Diefflen 2–1 Pfeddersheim: Result & Stats

Diefflen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pfeddersheim

3/16/2024

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 27Stadion Babelsberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Diefflen56%

×Draw20%

Pfeddersheim25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DiefflenExpected goals in this matchPfeddersheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.52

Diefflen

2.35

Pfeddersheim

1.52

Diefflen creates 55% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 45 away

2.28

creates per match

1.22

1.83

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Diefflen

2.28

Pfeddersheim

1.22

allows per match

Diefflen

1.83

Pfeddersheim

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Diefflen+0.00on par

Pfeddersheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diefflen ↓

Pfeddersheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Diefflen or draw

75%

Diefflen or Pfeddersheim

80%

Draw or Pfeddersheim

44%

Winning margin

Diefflen wins by 2+

35%

Pfeddersheim wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Diefflen 1+ goals

90%

Diefflen 2+ goals

68%

Diefflen 3+ goals

41%

Pfeddersheim 1+ goals

78%

Pfeddersheim 2+ goals

45%

Pfeddersheim 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Diefflen (draw refunded)

69%

Pfeddersheim (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diefflen at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.83 · 78 matches

Pfeddersheim away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diefflen attack 2.28 + Pfeddersheim defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.35

Pfeddersheim attack 1.22 + Diefflen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Diefflen scores more

56%

level

20%

Pfeddersheim scores more

25%

Diefflen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Diefflen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff