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Diefflen vs Jägersburg — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Diefflen
Diefflen
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Jägersburg
Jägersburg
8/6/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 2Stadion Babelsberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Diefflen57%
×Draw19%
Jägersburg25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diefflen
2.56
Jägersburg
1.66

Diefflen creates 54% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 25 away

creates per match

Diefflen
2.28
Jägersburg
1.48

allows per match

Diefflen
1.83
Jägersburg
2.84

finishing

Diefflen+0.00on par
Jägersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diefflen ↓

Jägersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Diefflen or draw
75%
Diefflen or Jägersburg
81%
Draw or Jägersburg
43%

Winning margin

Diefflen wins by 2+
36%
Jägersburg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Diefflen 1+ goals
92%
Diefflen 2+ goals
72%
Diefflen 3+ goals
46%
Jägersburg 1+ goals
81%
Jägersburg 2+ goals
49%
Jägersburg 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Diefflen (draw refunded)
70%
Jägersburg (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diefflen at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.83 · 78 matches

Jägersburg away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diefflen attack 2.28 + Jägersburg defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.56

Jägersburg attack 1.48 + Diefflen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Diefflen scores more
57%
level
19%
Jägersburg scores more
25%

Diefflen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Diefflen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Diefflen vs Jägersburg

Diefflen beat Jägersburg 6-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Babelsberg in Dillingen.