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Diefflen vs FC 08 Homburg — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Diefflen
Diefflen
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
FC 08 Homburg
FC 08 Homburg
D. Hummel 90', 73', 56'
A. Suljic 69'
1/18/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Babelsberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Diefflen26%
×Draw19%
FC 08 Homburg55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diefflen
1.72
FC 08 Homburg
2.55

FC 08 Homburg creates 48% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

Diefflen
1.80
FC 08 Homburg
2.71

allows per match

Diefflen
2.40
FC 08 Homburg
1.64

finishing

Diefflen+0.00on par
FC 08 Homburg+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diefflen ↓

FC 08 Homburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Diefflen or draw
45%
Diefflen or FC 08 Homburg
81%
Draw or FC 08 Homburg
74%

Winning margin

Diefflen wins by 2+
12%
FC 08 Homburg wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Diefflen 1+ goals
82%
Diefflen 2+ goals
51%
Diefflen 3+ goals
25%
FC 08 Homburg 1+ goals
92%
FC 08 Homburg 2+ goals
72%
FC 08 Homburg 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Diefflen (draw refunded)
32%
FC 08 Homburg (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diefflen at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

FC 08 Homburg away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diefflen attack 1.80 + FC 08 Homburg defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.72

FC 08 Homburg attack 2.71 + Diefflen defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Diefflen scores more
26%
level
19%
FC 08 Homburg scores more
55%

FC 08 Homburg at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FC 08 Homburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
D. Hummel
69'
A. Suljic
73'
D. Hummel
90'
D. Hummel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Diefflen vs FC 08 Homburg

FC 08 Homburg beat Diefflen 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 18, 2025.

Goals: D. Hummel (56', 73', 90'), A. Suljic (69').

The match was played at Stadion Babelsberg in Dillingen.