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Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Ramms — Presidents Cup 2019

Dibba Al Hisn
Dibba Al Hisn
FT
3 – 0
Al Ramms
Al Ramms
10/15/2023Presidents CupPresidents Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundDibba Al-Hisn Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dibba Al Hisn71%
×Draw17%
Al Ramms12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dibba Al Hisn
2.46
Al Ramms
0.92

Dibba Al Hisn creates 167% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

creates per match

Dibba Al Hisn
1.67
Al Ramms
0.75

allows per match

Dibba Al Hisn
1.08
Al Ramms
3.25

finishing

Dibba Al Hisn+0.00on par
Al Ramms+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dibba Al Hisn ↓

Al Ramms →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dibba Al Hisn or draw
88%
Dibba Al Hisn or Al Ramms
83%
Draw or Al Ramms
29%

Winning margin

Dibba Al Hisn wins by 2+
48%
Al Ramms wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dibba Al Hisn 1+ goals
91%
Dibba Al Hisn 2+ goals
70%
Dibba Al Hisn 3+ goals
44%
Al Ramms 1+ goals
60%
Al Ramms 2+ goals
23%
Al Ramms 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dibba Al Hisn (draw refunded)
85%
Al Ramms (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dibba Al Hisn at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Al Ramms away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dibba Al Hisn attack 1.67 + Al Ramms defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.46

Al Ramms attack 0.75 + Dibba Al Hisn defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Dibba Al Hisn scores more
71%
level
17%
Al Ramms scores more
12%

Dibba Al Hisn at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Dibba Al Hisn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dibba Al Hisn vs Al Ramms

Dibba Al Hisn beat Al Ramms 3-0 in Presidents Cup on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Dibba Al-Hisn Stadium in Dibba Al-Hisn.