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Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Masafi — Division 1 2025

Dibba Al-Fujairah
Dibba Al-Fujairah
FT
1 – 0
Masafi
Masafi
A. De Oliveira 79'
12/3/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 9Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dibba Al-Fujairah48%
×Draw28%
Masafi24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.34
Masafi
0.87

Dibba Al-Fujairah creates 54% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 34 away

creates per match

Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.00
Masafi
1.24

allows per match

Dibba Al-Fujairah
0.50
Masafi
1.68

finishing

Dibba Al-Fujairah+0.00on par
Masafi+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dibba Al-Fujairah ↓

Masafi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dibba Al-Fujairah or draw
76%
Dibba Al-Fujairah or Masafi
72%
Draw or Masafi
52%

Winning margin

Dibba Al-Fujairah wins by 2+
23%
Masafi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dibba Al-Fujairah 1+ goals
74%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 2+ goals
39%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 3+ goals
15%
Masafi 1+ goals
58%
Masafi 2+ goals
22%
Masafi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dibba Al-Fujairah (draw refunded)
66%
Masafi (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dibba Al-Fujairah at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Masafi away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 1.00 + Masafi defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.34

Masafi attack 1.24 + Dibba Al-Fujairah defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dibba Al-Fujairah scores more
48%
level
28%
Masafi scores more
24%

Dibba Al-Fujairah at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dibba Al-Fujairah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
H. Saeed
79'
A. De Oliveira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Dibba Al-Fujairah 1–0 Masafi

Dibba Al-Fujairah beat Masafi 1-0 in Division 1 on December 3, 2021.

Goals: A. De Oliveira (79').

The match was played at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium in Dibba Al-Fujairah.