Dibba Al-Fujairah 5–1 Dubai City: Result & Stats

Dibba Al-Fujairah

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Dubai City

4/10/2022

Division 1 · Round 27Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Dibba Al-Fujairah67%

×Draw20%

Dubai City14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dibba Al-FujairahExpected goals in this matchDubai City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.85

Dibba Al-Fujairah

2.13

Dubai City

0.85

Dibba Al-Fujairah creates 151% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 60 away

1.97

creates per match

0.98

0.72

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Dibba Al-Fujairah

1.97

Dubai City

0.98

allows per match

Dibba Al-Fujairah

0.72

Dubai City

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dibba Al-Fujairah+0.00on par

Dubai City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dibba Al-Fujairah ↓

Dubai City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dibba Al-Fujairah or draw

86%

Dibba Al-Fujairah or Dubai City

80%

Draw or Dubai City

33%

Winning margin

Dibba Al-Fujairah wins by 2+

42%

Dubai City wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Dibba Al-Fujairah 1+ goals

88%

Dibba Al-Fujairah 2+ goals

63%

Dibba Al-Fujairah 3+ goals

35%

Dubai City 1+ goals

57%

Dubai City 2+ goals

21%

Dubai City 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dibba Al-Fujairah (draw refunded)

83%

Dubai City (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dibba Al-Fujairah at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.72 · 61 matches

Dubai City away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.28 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 1.97 + Dubai City defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.13

Dubai City attack 0.98 + Dibba Al-Fujairah defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Dibba Al-Fujairah scores more

67%

level

20%

Dubai City scores more

14%

Dibba Al-Fujairah at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Dibba Al-Fujairah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Dubai City

Dibba Al-Fujairah beat Dubai City 5-1 in Division 1 on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium in Dibba Al-Fujairah.

Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Dubai City — Division 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Dubai City