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Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Taawon — Division 1 2018

Dibba Al-Fujairah
Dibba Al-Fujairah
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Taawon
Al Taawon
10/9/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 5Dibba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Dibba Al-Fujairah58%
×Draw23%
Al Taawon19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.82
Al Taawon
0.95

Dibba Al-Fujairah creates 92% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 72 away

creates per match

Dibba Al-Fujairah
1.97
Al Taawon
1.18

allows per match

Dibba Al-Fujairah
0.72
Al Taawon
1.68

finishing

Dibba Al-Fujairah+0.00on par
Al Taawon+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dibba Al-Fujairah ↓

Al Taawon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dibba Al-Fujairah or draw
81%
Dibba Al-Fujairah or Al Taawon
77%
Draw or Al Taawon
42%

Winning margin

Dibba Al-Fujairah wins by 2+
33%
Al Taawon wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dibba Al-Fujairah 1+ goals
84%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 2+ goals
54%
Dibba Al-Fujairah 3+ goals
27%
Al Taawon 1+ goals
61%
Al Taawon 2+ goals
25%
Al Taawon 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dibba Al-Fujairah (draw refunded)
75%
Al Taawon (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dibba Al-Fujairah at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.72 · 61 matches

Al Taawon away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.68 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 1.97 + Al Taawon defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.82

Al Taawon attack 1.18 + Dibba Al-Fujairah defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dibba Al-Fujairah scores more
58%
level
23%
Al Taawon scores more
19%

Dibba Al-Fujairah at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dibba Al-Fujairah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Taawon

Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Taawon drew 0-0 in Division 1 on October 9, 2023.

The match was played at Dibba Stadium in Dibba Al Fujairah.