Dibba Al-Fujairah 4–0 Al Ramms: Result & Stats

Dibba Al-Fujairah

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al Ramms

1/20/2024

Division 1 · Round 17Dibba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Dibba Al-Fujairah66%

×Draw20%

Al Ramms14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dibba Al-FujairahExpected goals in this matchAl Ramms

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.83

Dibba Al-Fujairah

2.08

Al Ramms

0.83

Dibba Al-Fujairah creates 151% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 43 away

1.97

creates per match

0.95

0.72

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Dibba Al-Fujairah

1.97

Al Ramms

0.95

allows per match

Dibba Al-Fujairah

0.72

Al Ramms

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dibba Al-Fujairah+0.00on par

Al Ramms+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dibba Al-Fujairah ↓

Al Ramms →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dibba Al-Fujairah or draw

86%

Dibba Al-Fujairah or Al Ramms

80%

Draw or Al Ramms

34%

Winning margin

Dibba Al-Fujairah wins by 2+

42%

Al Ramms wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Dibba Al-Fujairah 1+ goals

87%

Dibba Al-Fujairah 2+ goals

61%

Dibba Al-Fujairah 3+ goals

34%

Al Ramms 1+ goals

56%

Al Ramms 2+ goals

20%

Al Ramms 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Dibba Al-Fujairah (draw refunded)

83%

Al Ramms (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dibba Al-Fujairah at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.72 · 61 matches

Al Ramms away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 1.97 + Al Ramms defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.08

Al Ramms attack 0.95 + Dibba Al-Fujairah defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Dibba Al-Fujairah scores more

66%

level

20%

Al Ramms scores more

14%

Dibba Al-Fujairah at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Dibba Al-Fujairah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff